Hand Grenades under the Negotiating Table

By Kivanc Ozcan
International Affairs Review, October 18, 2010


The U.S. media is actively covering the latest attempts at an Israeli-Palestinian peace process. But despite this exuberance in the U.S., a closer look at the situation in the Middle East suggests that negotiations may have commenced prematurely and actually endangered the peace process.

Now may not be the right time to hold these talks. Only 32 percent of Palestinians support starting direct negotiations with Israel, according to the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion. There is also strong opposition in Israel, where Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman has publicly expressed his discontent with the talks – in direct opposition to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Coming to the negotiating table when major obstacles still exist on both sides may blow up the peace process altogether. Since direct talks trigger such strong objections, the parties should address their internal divisions first. They can continue talking later. The negotiating table is always there.

So far, both Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Netanyahu have been sitting at the negotiating table holding political hand-grenades that make the solution almost impossible. The Palestinian president threatened to leave the talks if settlement construction restarts in the West Bank. In return, Netanyahu has threatened to end the settlement moratorium.

Despite Abbas’ presence at the negotiating table, strong objections to the direct talks persist in Palestinian society and may derail the peace process. On August 31st, Hamas killed four Jewish settlers on the eve of the Washington talks. Thirteen armed Palestinian organizations also threatened to hit Tel Aviv with rockets during the first week of September.

President Abbas’ authority and legitimacy are on the brink of collapse. This will limit his ability to implement an agreement. Many Palestinians view Abbas' willingness to negotiate with the Israeli government as a sign of weakness, if not treason.

U.S. President Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton also appear to have lost their enthusiasm since the beginning of September. In mid-September, at his press conference in the White House, Obama said that the parties would be responsible for a failure. It looks like he is trying to prepare his public for a potential failure.

Supporters of direct talks should understand that Abbas is not former Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) leader, Yasser Arafat. Both politically and geographically, Gaza is out of his reach. Rather than talking with his Israeli counterparts, Abbas should spend more time talking with the people in Gaza.

Last week, Netanyahu’s threats on the settlement issue turned into a reality. Religious Jews restarted settlement building in the West Bank. Most members of the Israeli government applauded this development. So, we can say goodbye to the direct talks!

So who will help bridge the internal divide in Israel and put a stop to illegal Jewish settlements in the West Bank? Obama and Clinton can increase the political pressure on Israel by holding back aid. The international community and media can work more efficiently to lift the blockade of Gaza. These steps would be more helpful than giving lip service to the Palestinians.

So far, Israel has tried to tame Gaza by using various measures, from heavy bombing to man hunting, from mass arrests to blockade. To what end? Further radicalization of Gazans and an increased opposition to Israel? Now, it is time to try the untested: fully lift the Gaza blockade.

People may say that peace is impossible without the pressure of the talks. Sure, the negotiations are needed – but only at the right time. Even if Abbas and Netanyahu were to sign an agreement, who would implement it in Gaza? Nobody, because Abbas has no political control there.

Supporters of Israel maintain that Hamas wants to destroy Israel and so, there is no way to talk with them. They should read Jeroen Gunning’s book Hamas in Politics to discover the pragmatism of Hamas and its internal dynamics. Remember, before the Oslo Accords the Palestine Liberation Organization was the biggest terrorist organization for Israel. Today, its members eat with Israelis at the same table.

Finally, supporters of talks now argue that there will never be a trouble-free time to talk, that we must seize the moment. But past successes have always had greater public support. When then PLO leader, Yasser Arafat was talking with then-Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak, the vast majority of Palestinians were cheering him despite economic and political problems in Palestine. Today, these people are cursing Abbas for his efforts.

Some experts say that Abbas is successful in providing economic stability in the West Bank. I agree. But his success is widening the gap between Gaza and the West Bank. This gap would be an obstacle for a possible peace.

Do not misunderstand: peace without peace talks is impossible. But the time must be right for talks to produce a durable peace. Both Abbas’ and Netanyahu started to blow up the hand-grenades under the table. The explosion will not injure only these two politicians. The whole region is in danger.